Meana Petro
DR-04IntermediateWave 2AIDomain

Wellbore Stability Prediction

In one sentence

Predicts the mud weight window that keeps the hole open — not too light and it caves, not too heavy and it fractures.

The problem

The stability model built before spud is usually never updated, even though cavings, torque trend and hole cleaning are telling the team every hour how wrong it was.

Hole instability is the single largest contributor to non-productive time in deviated wells through shale sections.

How it works

A one-dimensional geomechanical model is initialised from offset logs and updated during drilling with cavings volume and morphology, ECD, torque and drag residuals, and downhole vibration. Bayesian updating widens or narrows the safe mud-weight window as evidence arrives.

The output is a window, not a number, and it is reported with the specific failure mode expected at each boundary.

Data required

  • Offset sonic, density and caliper logs; image logs where available
  • Leak-off and formation integrity test results
  • Real-time ECD, torque, drag, cavings observations from the shakers
  • Pore-pressure prediction from the pre-drill study

What you get

  • Updated safe mud-weight window by depth, refreshed per stand
  • Failure-mode call: breakout, wash-out, or induced fracture
  • Recommended trip and circulation practice for the current window

What it cannot do

Accuracy depends on the quality of the in-situ stress estimate, which in most brownfields is poorly constrained. Without at least one calibrated leak-off test in the section the window carries uncertainty wider than the operational margin, and the model should be used as a trend indicator only.

Every capability page states a real limitation. If a vendor cannot tell you where their product stops, you are not being told the truth about where it starts.

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