Meana Petro
PR-01FoundationalWave 1AI

Production Forecasting

In one sentence

Forecasts what each well will produce next month, and tells you which wells it is not confident about.

The problem

Monthly production plans are built by extrapolating last month by hand across several hundred wells. There is no separation between a well that is declining and a well that was simply shut in for nine days, so plan-versus-actual variance is argued about rather than explained.

How it works

Well-level models combine decline behaviour, operating conditions — wellhead pressure, choke, lift setting — and downtime patterns, with an ensemble that falls back to a simple decline fit where the data is thin. The forecast is delivered with a per-well confidence class, and low-confidence wells are listed explicitly rather than buried in the field total.

Data required

  • Daily or monthly production by well with downtime recorded separately from rate
  • Wellhead pressure and choke setting history
  • Well event log: workovers, lift changes, shut-ins with reasons
  • Well test data with test dates and durations

What you get

  • Well, reservoir and field forecast for the next 1–12 months with confidence class
  • Ranked list of wells whose behaviour has changed since last month
  • Plan-versus-actual variance report with the cause attributed to rate, downtime or allocation

What it cannot do

The forecast assumes operating conditions continue. It does not anticipate an unplanned facility shutdown, a compressor trip or a pipeline constraint, and those are the events that dominate large monthly misses. Where the field has poor downtime recording, forecast quality is capped by that and we report the cap instead of a headline accuracy number.

Every capability page states a real limitation. If a vendor cannot tell you where their product stops, you are not being told the truth about where it starts.

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