PR-01Foundational
Production Forecasting
Forecasts what each well will produce next month, and tells you which wells it is not confident about.
Production & Artificial LiftAI
SR-11IntermediateWave 2AI
Forecasting with Uncertainty
In one sentence
Produces P10, P50 and P90 production forecasts whose spread is calculated, not chosen to look reasonable.
The problem
Field forecasts are usually a single deterministic line with a percentage band added by convention. When actuals fall outside it, nobody can say whether the model was wrong or the outcome was simply within the real uncertainty.
How it works
Probabilistic forecasting combines decline-curve, material-balance and simulation-based methods, weighting each by its demonstrated skill on that field’s own history in a rolling backtest. The backtest is published with the forecast so the reader sees the method’s track record.
Data required
- Production history by well and by field with downtime separated
- Well events: workovers, shut-ins, artificial-lift changes
- Reservoir pressure history
- Planned future activity and facility constraints
What you get
- P10/P50/P90 forecasts at well, reservoir and field level
- Rolling backtest showing historical forecast accuracy
- Variance attribution when actuals deviate from plan
What it cannot do
Uncertainty bands are conditional on the future activity assumption. A forecast is not a prediction of what a company will do, and most large historical forecast misses in this industry were activity misses, not reservoir misses. We report the two sources separately so the miss can be attributed honestly.
Every capability page states a real limitation. If a vendor cannot tell you where their product stops, you are not being told the truth about where it starts.
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Automated History Matching
Tunes the reservoir model until it reproduces what the field actually produced, automatically and with the uncertainty kept rather than discarded.
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Automated Well Test Interpretation
Reads pressure build-up data, proposes the reservoir model behind it, and flags the tests that are not interpretable.
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