Meana Petro

Reservoir

Volumetric OOIP / OGIP with Monte Carlo

The volumetric equation run tens of thousands of times over triangular distributions, returning P90, P50 and P10 instead of one number that pretends to be certain.

Inputs

Drainage area

Net pay thickness

Porosity

Water saturation

Formation volume factor

Recovery factor

Sampling

Change it to see how much of the spread is sampling noise.

Results

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How it is calculated

  • OOIP = 7758 · A · h · φ · (1 − Sw) / Bo, in acres, feet and STB. For gas the constant is 43 560 and the divisor is Bg in ft³/scf.
  • Each variable is sampled from a triangular distribution defined by your low, most-likely and high values, using inverse-CDF sampling.
  • The sampler is seeded, so the same inputs always produce the same percentiles and a result can be quoted in a report and reproduced later.
  • P90 is the low estimate and P10 the high one, following the industry convention rather than the statistical one.

Standards it speaks

Where this stops being true

The variables are sampled independently, and in a real field they are anything but — area and thickness come from the same structural interpretation, porosity and water saturation from the same logs and the same cementation exponent. Ignoring that correlation makes the distribution narrower than the truth, so a P10–P90 range from this tool is optimistically tight. A triangular distribution is also a statement about your beliefs, not a measurement: the answer inherits whatever the high and low values encode, including the tendency to set them too close together.

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