Meana Petro

Production & lift

Decline curve analysis

Paste a rate history and get an Arps fit — qi, Di and b — with the time to the economic limit, remaining reserves and an EUR.

Inputs

Rate history

Months from the start of the decline, and the rate. Paste two columns from a spreadsheet.

RowMonthRate
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

Same units as the rate column.

Added to remaining reserves to give EUR. Leave at zero to see reserves only.

Results

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How it is calculated

  • Exponential fits ln q against t; harmonic fits 1/q against t; both are one regression.
  • Hyperbolic scans b from 0.05 to 1.5 and linearises q^(−b) against t at each candidate, keeping the b with the lowest residual sum of squares.
  • On "best fit" the three models compete on residual, so the answer is whichever describes the data rather than whichever was assumed.
  • Reserves integrate the chosen Arps form analytically down to the economic rate; EUR adds the cumulative you enter.

Standards it speaks

Where this stops being true

Arps is an empirical curve, not physics. It assumes boundary-dominated flow at constant bottom-hole pressure with no operating change — so a fit over a period containing a workover, a compressor start-up or a choke change describes the intervention, not the reservoir. In unconventional wells the early transient period fits with b well above 1, which is mathematically unbounded and gives reserves that cannot exist; those wells need a terminal exponential decline imposed, and this tool does not impose one for you.

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