PR-01Fundacional
Pronóstico de Producción
Forecasts what each well will produce next month, and tells you which wells it is not confident about.
Producción y Levantamiento ArtificialIA
SR-11IntermediaOla 2IA
Pronóstico con Incertidumbre
En una frase
Produces P10, P50 and P90 production forecasts whose spread is calculated, not chosen to look reasonable.
El problema
Field forecasts are usually a single deterministic line with a percentage band added by convention. When actuals fall outside it, nobody can say whether the model was wrong or the outcome was simply within the real uncertainty.
Cómo funciona
Probabilistic forecasting combines decline-curve, material-balance and simulation-based methods, weighting each by its demonstrated skill on that field’s own history in a rolling backtest. The backtest is published with the forecast so the reader sees the method’s track record.
Datos necesarios
- Production history by well and by field with downtime separated
- Well events: workovers, shut-ins, artificial-lift changes
- Reservoir pressure history
- Planned future activity and facility constraints
Qué obtiene
- P10/P50/P90 forecasts at well, reservoir and field level
- Rolling backtest showing historical forecast accuracy
- Variance attribution when actuals deviate from plan
Qué no puede hacer
Uncertainty bands are conditional on the future activity assumption. A forecast is not a prediction of what a company will do, and most large historical forecast misses in this industry were activity misses, not reservoir misses. We report the two sources separately so the miss can be attributed honestly.
Cada página de capacidad declara una limitación real. Si un proveedor no puede decirle dónde termina su producto, no le están diciendo la verdad sobre dónde empieza.
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