SR-11Intermedia
Pronóstico con Incertidumbre
Produces P10, P50 and P90 production forecasts whose spread is calculated, not chosen to look reasonable.
Inteligencia de Subsuelo y YacimientoIA
SR-14FundacionalOla 2DominioIA
Estimación Automatizada de Reservas y DCA
En una frase
Fits decline curves across every well in the field on a consistent basis and keeps the audit trail that a reserves report needs.
El problema
Annual reserves work is a spreadsheet campaign in which each engineer fits curves by eye with different assumptions about downtime, and the auditor spends most of the review reconstructing what was done.
Cómo funciona
Automated fitting applies Arps and modified hyperbolic models with consistent rules for downtime handling, segment selection and terminal decline. Every fit stores its parameters, the data window used and who approved it, so the audit trail is a by-product rather than a separate exercise.
Datos necesarios
- Monthly or daily production by well with downtime recorded separately
- Well event history: workovers, artificial-lift changes, choke changes
- Economic limit assumptions
- Prior reserves booking for continuity
Qué obtiene
- EUR by well with fit parameters and diagnostic plots
- Field roll-up by reserves category with change reconciliation year over year
- Audit package with every assumption and approval recorded
Qué no puede hacer
Decline analysis assumes the future resembles the fitted past under unchanged operating conditions. It has no view on a change in artificial lift, an infill campaign or a facility constraint, and it will fit a confident curve to a well whose decline is entirely caused by a partially closed choke. Event history is therefore mandatory input, not optional.
Cada página de capacidad declara una limitación real. Si un proveedor no puede decirle dónde termina su producto, no le están diciendo la verdad sobre dónde empieza.
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