مانا بترو
SR-11متوسطةالموجة 2الذكاء الاصطناعي

التنبؤ مع تحديد عدم اليقين

في جملة واحدة

Produces P10, P50 and P90 production forecasts whose spread is calculated, not chosen to look reasonable.

المشكلة

Field forecasts are usually a single deterministic line with a percentage band added by convention. When actuals fall outside it, nobody can say whether the model was wrong or the outcome was simply within the real uncertainty.

كيف تعمل

Probabilistic forecasting combines decline-curve, material-balance and simulation-based methods, weighting each by its demonstrated skill on that field’s own history in a rolling backtest. The backtest is published with the forecast so the reader sees the method’s track record.

البيانات المطلوبة

  • Production history by well and by field with downtime separated
  • Well events: workovers, shut-ins, artificial-lift changes
  • Reservoir pressure history
  • Planned future activity and facility constraints

ما الذي تحصل عليه

  • P10/P50/P90 forecasts at well, reservoir and field level
  • Rolling backtest showing historical forecast accuracy
  • Variance attribution when actuals deviate from plan

ما لا تستطيع فعله

Uncertainty bands are conditional on the future activity assumption. A forecast is not a prediction of what a company will do, and most large historical forecast misses in this industry were activity misses, not reservoir misses. We report the two sources separately so the miss can be attributed honestly.

كل صفحة قدرة تذكر حداً حقيقياً. إن لم يستطع المورّد إخبارك أين يتوقف منتجه، فلم يُقل لك الحق عن أين يبدأ.

قدرات ذات صلة

  • PR-01أساسية

    التنبؤ بالإنتاج

    Forecasts what each well will produce next month, and tells you which wells it is not confident about.

    الإنتاج والرفع الصناعيالذكاء الاصطناعي
  • SR-02متقدمة

    المطابقة التاريخية الآلية

    Tunes the reservoir model until it reproduces what the field actually produced, automatically and with the uncertainty kept rather than discarded.

    ذكاء تحت السطح والمكامنالذكاء الاصطناعيالمجال